Top ten guesses of China's power industry in 2018

2022-08-15
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Top ten guesses of China's power industry in 2018: will the cost of lithium battery energy storage decline rapidly

nearly half of January 2018, this year, the national distributed photovoltaic industry continues to lead the development? We sorted out the top ten guesses of China's power equipment industry in 2018

the latest data shows that in 2017, the national power supply and demand was generally loose. The cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has increased year-on-year, and the cumulative electricity consumption in all provinces has achieved positive growth; The power consumption of industry and manufacturing increased year-on-year, but the growth rate was lower than that of the whole society; The cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption in the high load energy industry increased year-on-year, and the electricity consumption in the non-ferrous industry in that month increased negatively for three consecutive months; The growth rate of installed capacity of power generation slowed down, and the power generation of thermal power in that month increased negatively for three consecutive months; The utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide decreased year-on-year, and the decline in utilization hours of hydropower equipment continued to narrow month on month; The electricity transmission across regions and provinces nationwide increased year-on-year; The new generation capacity increased year on year, and the new generation capacity of wind power was basically the same as that of the previous year

In September, the national infrastructure added 112.86 million kw of power generation capacity, 27.29 million KW more than the same period last year. Among them, 10.27 million kw of hydropower, 39.25 million kw of thermal power, 2.18 million kw of nuclear power, 12.52 million kw of wind power, and 48.65 million kw of solar power. Hydropower, thermal power, wind power and solar power were put into operation 1.3 million, 5.8 million, 5.0 million and 24.72 million KW more than the same period last year, and nuclear power was put into operation 5.03 million KW less than the same period last year

the proportion of investment completed in clean energy increased year-on-year

in January, the investment in power engineering of major power generation enterprises in China was 232.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, hydropower was 49.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year; Thermal power was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%; Nuclear power was 33.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; Wind power was 57.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%. The completed investment in clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 71.1% of the completed investment in power, an increase of 5.6 percentage points over the same period last year

with the proportion of clean energy investment gradually increasing, how will China's power equipment develop in 2018

top ten conjectures of China's power equipment industry in 2018

conjecture 1: the new installed capacity of domestic wind power reached GW. According to the data of the energy administration, the wind abandonment rate in the first half of 2017 was 13.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and the situation of wind abandonment and power curtailment improved significantly. The new installation is committed to the research and development of new materials and the use of machines. The selection of appropriate measuring plates is expected to reach GW in 2018, with the main growth coming from Hongliu province

guess 2: the new installed capacity of offshore wind power reaches GW level. As of August 2017, 4.8gw of offshore wind power projects were under construction in China, and the scale of projects that have been approved but not yet started in the past year reached 2.8gw. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of domestic offshore wind power will exceed 1GW in 2018

guess 3: distributed continues to lead the development of photovoltaic industry. In 2018, the decline rate of distributed photovoltaic power price was slightly lower than expected. With the decline of the price of photovoltaic components and other products, it is expected that under the new price system, distributed photovoltaic can still achieve a good yield and continue to lead the development of domestic photovoltaic

guess 4: the proportion of gas and electricity has increased steadily, and distributed gas has ushered in spring. According to the plan, by the end of 2020, China will build 147 natural gas distributed energy projects, with an installed capacity of 16.54 million KW, and distributed gas is expected to enter a high boom development period

guess 5: the production and sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded one million, entering a secondary era of growth. The oil and electricity balance price of power batteries will be reached two years in advance, and the logic of production and sales growth of new energy vehicles will change from the policy led logic of "taking subsidies from the government" to the quality LED logic of "taking customers from the market". The year-on-year increase of 9.39% in new energy passenger vehicles will enter the production and marketing explosion period, driving the production and marketing of new energy vehicles to exceed the million mark

guess 6: the price of power battery after pack reaches 1 yuan/wh. According to the pessimistic situation of the expected subsidy draft, the sales price of three yuan power battery excluding tax in 18 years is close to 1050 yuan/kwh; The gross profit margin of power battery enterprises without upstream material layout and shipped with battery packs may drop to 26%

guess 7: the cost of lithium battery energy storage has fallen rapidly, and it is expected to develop on a large scale. With the further improvement of market cooperation, the price of lithium batteries will further decline with the improvement of modified plastics, and the economy of energy storage will gradually become prominent. In 2018, lithium battery energy storage is expected to achieve large-scale development in the domestic auxiliary service market and the energy storage market on the industrial and commercial user side

guess 8: power battery ternary high nickel accelerated, and ncm811 broke through in 18 years. As the probability of the 18 year national subsidy policy continues to increase the "incentive level" energy density requirement to 140wh/kg, the penetration of ncm622/811 ternary materials will accelerate, and pure electric passenger vehicles will become the main driving force for the growth of ternary batteries

guess 9: the negative electrode enters the price increase channel, and the high-quality requirements exceed the low-cost demands. The cost of negative electrode accounts for only 6%. Battery enterprises are less sensitive to the price of negative electrode, and the demand will be upgraded from "capacity/price" dual requirements to "capacity/life/multiplying factor" multiple requirements. Price will no longer be the main consideration of battery enterprises

guess 10: the penetration of soft pack power battery accelerates comprehensively. With the lightweight of the outer packaging materials, the soft pack is the most promising product system to meet the energy density requirements of the national power battery. The soft pack power battery is the preferred way to improve the energy density. The aluminum plastic film link with the most technical barriers in the soft package field will benefit

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